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hello Internet welcome to film theory
the show that's here to remind you that
YouTube and chill is a great financially
responsible alternative if you can't
afford Netflix after its latest price
hike if you haven't already noticed the
subscription video streaming situation
is getting pretty darn complicated over
here on Team internet most of us already
know that the rise of subscriptions
streaming has ushered the demise of
cable TV with forty four point three
million American households already
having cut the cord at the cable cord in
case you don't know what the chord
refers to anymore because at this point
it's so antiquated yeah there was a plug
that ran into your house to plug into
your TV that gave you a bonus channels
it was crazy
and now those cords are being cots those
of us who are dumped into the real world
in the middle of a recession absolutely
understand why this is cable is just
freakin expensive and those prices keep
climbing even when the best content
flees to subscription platforms and it
forces people into bundles getting them
to buy tons of junk that they don't want
just get a couple of things that they do
when streaming first came onto the scene
a decade ago it was a solution to both
of those issues not to go all grandpa
Mapp had on you but when I first started
watching my girlfriend's Netflix
subscription
I mean ordering Netflix for myself as a
fully grown adult it was $7.99 a month
now there's multiple different plans and
they max out at $16 a month come on guys
ah makes you wish for the good old days
but not the two old days where you're
back into cable TV territory but like
the good old days that are kind of after
cable TV days but before the days that
are now basically when Netflix first
launched okay and now in 2020 everyone
is rushed to the streaming well and the
Disney pluses and the Apple TV pluses
and pretty much anybody else who feels
like sauce and a plus at the end of
their name is getting in on the gold
rush there are even more big names like
NBC use peacock and Warner media's HBO
Macs on the way and if you think this is
gonna end well with dozens of streaming
companies coexisting in harmony think
again
of battle to the streaming service death
ripsi so and Verizon go 90 and Yahoo
screamed this is only the beginning
there's an estimated twenty four point
eight billion dollars out there for the
taking these services are desperate to
make anything that'll get you to come
over to their service and watch no time
of my friends got Netflix deals it's a
very achievable goal to make matters
even more competitive now every network
is territorial long gone are the days
where Netflix can just sit back and
simply offer hit NBC shows like The
Office or hit Disney movies now the
NBC's of the Disney's of the world have
their own streaming platforms and
they're taking their content back and
making sure that it doesn't go out to
play with the other neighborhood
riffraff streaming services live or die
by their content library there's only
one company out there whose library has
been known and readily merchandised for
the last 50 odd years and that one is
Disney but are the Little Mermaid's and
Lizzy McGuire's of the world enough to
crush obsessive hits like Game of
Thrones the good place and nailed it is
last one just me Nicole Byers is a gem
and a mood simultaneously ok no my
friends the question that I'm asking
today is who will win the streaming wars
in an ecosystem that is overcrowded and
oversaturated with consumers strapped
for cash who will survive well it turns
out that we didn't have to guess who's
poised to win the streaming war because
there's a lot of evidence out there to
point us in the right direction and
while it might seem that this is just a
question for business nerds think again
my theorists if the streaming service
you subscribe to isn't at the top of
this list you better start advocating
for your favorite shows now otherwise
they're likely to go the way of the
silent film and VHS tapes of the world
lost to media history forever might as
well find out now if your favorite
streaming service is going under so you
can start your online petition to save
whatever your favorite show is tiny
house nation cable TVs peter out over
the last 10 years because the prices are
so crazy they've become unsustainable
but ironically the streaming service
wars are likely to share some
similarities costs of each of these
services are rising even if the content
on them is becoming more and more
fragmented Netflix has had four price
hikes even in the midst of losing some
of its biggest shows as recently as last
year a comedy fan in the US could watch
friends the office and
is the new black all in one place
Netflix for the low low price of $8.99 a
month but now those three shows are
spread across three separate streaming
services and to get them all surprise
surprise nowadays you're shelling out a
whopping $35 a month as show scatter it
also means that viewership is being
spread thinner and thinner
it's called siloing siloing is making it
so people often aren't watching the same
shows as each other which means that
massive cultural events where everyone
gathers around watch the final season of
something or the final episode of
something just isn't a thing in 2020 it
also means that spoiler alerts now have
to exist in perpetuity and on a personal
note it just makes it really hard for me
to pick streaming shows to cover here on
film theory I mean how is a guy supposed
to pick shows to cover on this series
with so many ridiculous streaming
services out there if I were you I'd be
watching Bojack horseman on Netflix but
there's a chance that you're all
watching
I don't know Midsomer Murders on acorn
or some nonsense that's why I have to do
this episode I have to know which
service is gonna survive and tell you
guys about it so we can all be on the
same page and plan episodes out on this
channel accordingly maybe this is just
another episode of selfish Compton after
all so with all that said let's just get
into the numbers and figure it out it's
easy to root for the incumbent here
Netflix not only as Netflix the current
market leader with an 87 percent
penetration rate among us over the top
video subscribers but Netflix is still
projected to be in first place by a wide
margin in 2024 now I know what you're
all thinking penetration rate is
hilarious term and I agree but
penetration rate is also a metric used
to describe market share in the
streaming marketplace basically of
everyone who has any kind of digital
streaming service 87% of them have
Netflix this is compared to companies
like fine video with a 53% penetration
rate and Hulu at 41.5% Netflix has also
shown that it's huge market share isn't
easily shaken some experts predicted
Netflix could lose up to 25 percent of
their subscribers when Disney Plus
launched but it lost almost none
Netflix's reviews and ratings are higher
number and better in rating than Amazon
the Netflix app is downloaded far more
often than Amazon video and certainly
not least of all Netflix develops
original content that's nominated for
top industry awards dozens of Oscar
nominations and over a half dozen Golden
Globes just this year alone
according to Variety in 2019 quote has
to pick their favorite shows on Netflix
users surveyed put orange is the new
black at number one and stranger things
at number two topping licensed shows
like The Office and Friends they clearly
see this as a path forward in 2019
Netflix spent fifteen billion dollars on
original programming that is more than
Prime video Hulu and Disney Plus
combined across 2019 Netflix released on
average more than one new show per day
the TLDR here is that this date night
juggernaut ain't going nowhere at least
until it starts running out of money you
see the first problem with Netflix is
that it's spending that much money on
programs for a long time Netflix wasn't
even profitable as a company it is now
but it spends the vast majority of its
revenue on new programming meaning that
it has no buffer to survive a few lean
years if things start to go badly
Netflix isn't in a position to be able
to sustain itself on top of that Netflix
in 2020 is no longer able to do what it
was intended to do it was supposed to
break down barriers and access to
entertainment so people wouldn't have to
order cable packages with 600 channels
just so they could watch four of them
but now with so many streaming platforms
out there
each guarding it's early 2000 sitcoms
like little Network dragons on top of
their gold pile the TV watching walls
are higher than they've ever been before
with shows now broken across even
smaller segments now in order for our
comedy fan from before to watch the
three shows that they want they have to
buy platforms with a ton of stuff that
they don't like that is no different
than cable it's not Netflix's fault but
the media landscape has put it into a
position where it can't really play the
whole field anymore now Netflix has to
perform or die it has to create its own
shows that are big hits or else it's
gonna fall apart when it starts falling
apart it falls apart in a hurry so
netflix has chances of being the winner
here are slim at best
I mean just look at the other contenders
namely the 254 billion-dollar flying
elephant in the room
Disney sure Netflix might seem like a
behemoth in the realm of streaming but
it is a downright puny company when you
compare it to Disney Amazon Apple and
the other conglomerates that are far
more diversified in the business isn't
that they do in essence Netflix can't
afford to have a bad year in the
streaming marketplace because
subscription streaming is its entire
business model they have to succeed now
and they have to keep succeeding
meanwhile behemoths like Apple Amazon
and especially Disney can all play the
long game because they can afford to
play the long game subscription
streaming is only a fraction of their
business models they have money coming
in hand over fist from any of the other
dozens of things that they do but you
know some people are just blessed like
Disney a streaming service that doesn't
look like it needs to play the long game
at all Disney Plus attracted a
staggering 10 million subscribers on its
first day putting its penetration rate
among subscription video customers at 5
percent on day one that would be like 5
percent of all YouTube viewers
subscribing to one channel on the day it
launches and Disney is reportedly very
committed to its streaming plan what
Disney CEO Bob Iger said last February
that streaming apps are now the
company's number one priority and quote
also Disney has 61 shows in development
looking towards that Netflix benchmark
well at the same time not paying any
licensing fees since Disney owns
everything in its vault this becomes an
even bigger deal when you compare Disney
to companies like Amazon and Apple also
huge companies in their own rights but
not entertainment companies first and
foremost Disney has decades of audience
research data and fan bases for
everything from Moana to Iron Man to the
mandalorian the tech giants meanwhile
are starting from scratch in
entertainment and hoping that Amazon
customer data about people who bought
cheese graters last year somehow
translates into viewership for America's
Test Kitchen
finally let's not forget that Disney
Loki has for streaming services active
and in use not just one it already
launched ESPN Plus last year has control
of Hulu following its acquisition of Fox
and it owns the streaming service hot
star in India meaning it has a big stake
internationally
to the mandalorian their new
experimental series became the most
in-demand series in the world the second
it launched so clearly they're putting
their experience and unbelievable
knowledge of fandom to work like
yesterday looking at it this way Disney
seems like Thanos which yeah and
ironically Disney also owns but wait a
second we have another problem here the
way that Disney's structured with its
multiple streaming services it seems
like we're headed towards a real B word
oh yeah you heard that right we're
headed back towards the bundle the
famous cable service bundle that would
force customers and dispense a channel
packages with all kinds of garbage that
they didn't want from rfd-tv the farming
and agricultural channel to retirement
living TV and the puppy Channel okay
well the last one sounds good but you
get the idea when I tried to buy
Internet cable companies still try to
sell me bundles with a home phone line
and I have to keep myself from actually
smacking up I mean bundles are the worst
but Disney is already pushing straight
back to bundle fest with its lineup of
Disney Plus Hulu and ESPN Plus scurrying
back to the days of cable faster than
you can say Disney deja vu I mean over
the last couple years Disney has really
been milking the nostalgia for Bucks but
in this case it looks like Disney
themselves are nostalgic for business
models from like ten years ago but it
can't be right right
leaving the days of cable behind we're a
new innovative generation of media
consumers there has to be someone who
can win this war for us uh school kids
that were too smart for cable or who are
too poor for cable but say that we're
too smart for cable what about Amazon
Prime what about Apple Sony NBC
unfortunately while all of them are
backed by really strong companies
they're all plagued with their own
issues Amazon Prime and Apple seem like
mega contenders at first glance they're
both backed by massive companies that
would be successful with or without
streaming entertainment meaning that
they can afford to play around for a
little bit without needing a smash
success Apple isn't worried about razor
thin margins like Netflix but
unfortunately a lot of the tech giant's
are entering an arena they know nothing
about
they don't have deep content libraries
like Disney and they aren't coming in
with a big entertainment customer base
like Netflix it also doesn't help these
services have some of the most
complicated interfaces with some of the
worst controls in the industry it seems
petty to call this out but the fact is
you can tell Amazon doesn't understand
entertainment customers just by how
poorly
their TV app works I mean what do I own
what don't I own what do I have to pay
to rent this is like the worst system
ever Amazon it is miserable and I'm
going completely off book at this point
because it is that bad I have gotten so
frustrated so many times trying to watch
Amazon shows because each season is its
own thumbnail for some reason why aren't
you housing those together guys why is
the buy or rent shelf one of the first
shelves that I'm presented with as I'm
scrolling through your app why would I
choose to pay for stuff you're just
joining me the stuff that you don't
actually have available for me and how
hard is it to make a functional
fast-forward and rewind button I mean
still you're using the double arrows too
fast like I can't tell where I'm
stopping at any point it is so so bad oh
wow I had a lot of pent up feelings
there that I just got out I feel
cleansed in some way oh yeah Oh Amazon
and Apple just aren't fit for this war I
mean same goes for places like CBS
online and other networks even if you're
willing to settle for their smaller
roster of content good luck being able
to even find what you're looking for the
majority of these other streaming
service contenders are trying to catch
up on all the fronts they're trying to
catch up on building out their product
to a usable standard they're trying to
build out their user base to make the
whole thing sustainable and they're
starting with tinier content libraries
it's just a lot a lot to ask any one
service to overcome and content is not
cheap my friends I mean we're cheap here
in film theory but you know that's not
saying a whole lot
so is that it disney wins netflix has a
chance as long as they keep dancing and
the small guys kind of fall by the
wayside well let's check in with the
experts observer has a pretty
comprehensive diagnostic of the space
that concludes with the following quote
some combination of Netflix Disney Plus
Amazon Prime video and YouTube TV will
thrive Apple TV Plus Hulu and HBO max
will survive though not without trouble
and CBS all access and peacock will
struggle to keep pace and quote mostly
this aligns with everything we just
discussed the individual networks won't
be able to keep up places like Hulu and
Apple might be able to hang in there
because they're owned by Disney or
they're just a tech giant and winners
will be services like Netflix because
they had a first mover advantage and
Disney Plus because it's Disney and
Disney doesn't lose it anything at this
point the one outlier here that we
haven't mentioned is the one where I'm
guessing we all spend a lot of time but
don't think much about in this race
YouTube TV that's right YouTube TV is
the wrinkle in all this business that's
gonna sweep all the competition if
they're not looking out so let's talk
about this relatively new horse in the
race
unlike narrowly focused services from
networks like CBS or NBC if YouTube TV
aggregates a lot of shows from a lot of
different platforms and allows you to
either watch them live as they're being
shown like regular TV or save them to
your library we can watch them on demand
like Netflix your library is unlimited
and it never goes away
so essentially you can save every single
thing that comes on TV until you have a
library that's quadruple the size of any
other streaming platform and YouTube TV
has a lot of channels regular people
actually want like news and sports and
Keeping Up with the Kardashians with
that system we're already able to get
around some of those Netflix siloing
issues we talked about before because it
funnels regular TV into the service it
also isn't relying on a static library
that it has to build all on its own like
Disney plus it gets new episodes 24
hours a day as TV keeps airing and it
doesn't need to bundle either because it
already comes with stuff like ESPN I
would know because YouTube TV
desperately wants me a 30 year old white
male to watch football
I don't watch football I don't click on
it when you serve it up to me in the top
of my subscription feed please fill that
wasted screen space with something you
might actually think I'll watch like
Chloe's latest fashion launch or
infinity train for the umpteenth time or
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure because yeah
that's where I watched it on YouTube TV
and it's fundamentally different from
other streaming services because it's
also ads supported meaning that it's not
just relying on subscription revenue for
its profit no that might seem like it's
cheating but apparently users don't care
because it's become the fastest-growing
live streaming service in the last year
and it continues to poach users from
everywhere else on top of all of that
the thing that everyone overlooks here
is that YouTube is not totally separate
from YouTube TV in fact this very
channel is approved for watching on
YouTube TV look my mattv2099
you two made and also Google and also
alphabet the company that owns all of
them YouTube raked in a reported fifteen
billion dollars in ad revenue last year
alone on top of that YouTube is focused
on a metric that gets overlooked on a
lot of these other platforms the magic
two words watch time YouTube TV has two
million paying subscribers but YouTube's
main has two billion monthly users and
also has 250 million watch hours daily
according to IG com quote people spend
more time on YouTube in almost every
major global economy excluding China
than any other video streaming site end
quote
YouTube has the ability to funnel users
towards YouTube TV from an entertainment
platform they already love based on
watch time that dwarfs literally any
other entertainment medium out there in
the world like I said people aren't
thinking about it but YouTube TV is a
massive competitor in the race and to
top off all its other features it's
totally usable remember when I said that
no one can find anything on Amazon Prime
that CBS online is annoying to use well
YouTube TV is not I can use it my
father-in-law can use it my grandpa can
use it because it looks and feels a lot
like regular TV did with old cable it
has a lot of channels and a watch most
of them it has commercials it costs $50
a month wait a minute YouTube TV is just
cable all over again
YouTube TV is just cable it's just a
bunch of channels and I can switch back
and forth between them and like yeah
it's got like an unlimited DVR feature
or whatever but damn it they got me
again and here's the moral of today's
streaming wars theory my friend whoever
wins we lose the streaming wars seem
really exciting everything that's
happening with all these platforms
showing up if making headlines seems
groundbreaking it seems like
entertainment is in an upheaval but the
truth is that those who are poised to be
the winners are set up to win using the
exact same tactics that cable companies
have used since the very first a TV
service started in 1972 it was called
home box office or HBO for short when
that first premiered back in 1972 it
cost $6 a month it worked by aggregating
the rights to movies that were otherwise
going unwashed and uncared about sound
someone you know the history of cable is
quite frankly worth its own episode but
for now suffice it to say that no one
from Amazon to Hulu to Disney Plus to
YouTube TV is reinventing the wheel here
ten years ago we were at a juncture
where we could have reinvented
entertainment or taken a completely
different path but between bundling
advertisements and siloing of content
behind lots of paywalls are quickly just
headed back towards a future that looks
just like the past when the dust settles
and the streaming wars are finally over
it doesn't seem like it's gonna be any
less expensive or any less fragmented
well there be some differences this time
around sure thanks to the internet
viewers are at least in a better
position to make their opinions heard as
well as completely panel show or a
company if they make a misstep that said
another ten years down the line and
we're likely to see most of the small
players swallowed up by the big guys who
will only have each other to compete
with using a lot of the tactics that
we've all seen before and where will I
be well still shelling out for
everything because seriously I have to
watch everything for this channel it's
completely ridiculous how many shows I'm
supposed to know nowadays I was hoping
that the streaming wars would thin out a
few of these but guess knots in the
meantime remember it's all just a theory
a film theory now if you'll excuse me
have to go and watch the finale of
Bojack horse
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