what a warm welcome to this talk it's
Wednesday the 22nd of March now today
I'm going to be looking at a paper and
this is the paper here I want to look at
is there a link between the 2021
covid-19 vaccine uptake in Europe
and 2022 all cause
mortality not covered mortality all
cause mortality
and this study did find such a
correlation
now let's look at it now this is the
question that's the paper
now this is studied in this is paper
this papers published in Western Norway
University of applied sciences
now in Norway they have certain freedoms
that we don't have in Western countries
we don't have in the UK or the United
States for example in Norway you can
actually camp anywhere so there's
certain freedoms in Norway that we don't
have in other other countries
anyway getting back to the topic in hand
um conflict of interest statements the
authors declare no conflict of interest
so I think we can take it from this that
the authors are not being paid
uh huge amounts of money by vested
interest which of course is always good
to check
so no vested interest there
the authors say we primarily study a
possible link between 2021 covid-19
vaccination uptake in Europe and all
cause
mortality in 2022 so the correlating
vaccines in 2021 for covered 19.
and monthly mortality in 2022 now let's
be perfectly clear
this is a preprint
this is not a peer-reviewed paper
but I wanted to cover this paper because
I think the possibility of this getting
published in a mainstream peer-reviewed
Journal is essentially zero
leave that there I don't think it's
going to get published in the
peer-reviewed journal if it does I'll be
very surprised and more certainly report
on it
but I think it's important to report on
it now because this is the whole point
of uh preprints they are papers for
discussion and we're discussing it now
um so I.E mortality higher than before
the pandemic so this is taking the
mortality in 2022 comparing that to
pre-pandemic levels now the analyze 31
countries January to September
2022. they did point out the importance
of analyzing the last three months in
2022 when they get the full data
available for that
is it just where that went up to 31 EU
member states throwing in Norway Iceland
Lichtenstein and Switzerland
all cause mortality this is direct quote
from the paper
increased more the higher
the 2021 vaccine uptake in other words
countries with more covid-19 vaccines in
2021 had higher excess mortality in the
first nine months of 2022. this is what
we call a positive correlation between
vaccination in 2021 and excess deaths in
2022 and they quantify it there was a
one percent Point increase in
2021 vaccination rate so for every one
point and one percent that went up
basically the mortality went up by a
tenth of a percent
so the mortality in 2022 was 0.
105 basically tenth of a percent
so uh I consider that number to be uh
huge
one percent increase in vaccination in
2021.1 percent increase in overall
mortality in 2022.
it's a huge number absolutely huge
number
when controlling for alternative
explanations the association remained
robust so they remained robust and
significant now 2021 or cause mortality
was lower the higher the vaccination
uptake
so interestingly in 2021
um we uh the more vaccines people had
the less people died in 2021 but in 2022
it was the opposite but and it's a big
but in 2021 when they controlled for
other uh variables that became a
non-significant effect
so there was an inverse correlation
between covered vaccines and all-cause
mortality in 2021 but it was not
significant after they accounted for
um
quite a few variations that they
cleverly accounted for in this paper
this is from data's from eurostat we've
looked at this many times
official European statistics check it
out for yourself EU experienced success
mortality in the first nine months of
2022 we've looked at that before no
question that that is the case
tragically tragically
we're talking about
um mortality here as if it's some
abstract concept of course it's not it's
multiple
individual human tragedies and
bereavements
this is why we do this this is this this
is of massive importance
covid-19 vaccinations prevented SARS
cov2 related Hospital admissions and
deaths
so there's evidence that in
2021 May 2021 and 13th of May so these
are both may 2021 and given that these
papers were both published in May 2021
they're dealing with
um data from January February March
mostly 2021 very early on
in the pandemic the Alpha and the Delta
stages of the pandemic
so evidence that the vaccine was
effective from 2021 and 2021 that's from
the landsat that's from British medical
journal
so vaccines were preventing SARS
coronavirus to related Hospital
admissions and deaths specifically of
course to SARS coronavirus 2 not talking
about or cause mortality
covid-19 vaccination are side effects
such as myocarditis and pericarditis
says who
don't take my word for things well
as always we give evidence
evidence for myocarditis and
pericarditis post vaccine this one's
from uh Journal of the American Medical
Association Cardiology
a note we're now into 2022 so this is a
year later
so uh that this is six seven months
later 25th of January 2022.
so
we can clearly see that
times have changed
a recent study falsified suspected
association between the two diagnoses
that's myocarditis and pericarditis
and covid-19 virus infection
so journal of clinical medicine that's
that
publication there
they found post-covered 19 infection was
not associated with either myocarditis
or pericarditis so that makes us a bit
curious
about where the increase in myocarditis
and pericarditis came from if it's not
caused from the natural infection
vaccine uptake is the percentage of the
no this is how they've got the data
vaccine update they took us the as the
percentage of the total population
that's received a primary course
by week 52 of 2021 in other words this
only goes up to the end of 2021. now
here are the countries they studied
and these are the percentages of the
primary courses now of course all of
this is in the article I just put this
here to show you what a huge
epidemiological study this actually is
so percentage of primary courses by the
end of 2021
and that's what they took their
correlations from so low in Bulgaria
going all the way up to uh Iceland and
Ireland 76.
6 percent
countries that you might be interested
in you can see there of course the UK no
longer a member of the European Union
but we will be at that very much the
higher end of this
um
and of course of course the accounting
for population size needless to say
their conclusion here of direct quote
from the paper
the interaction between vaccine uptake
and time passed in months since the
beginning of 2022 is strongly
significant strongly significant
and implies that the mortality increase
and the higher the vaccine uptake so
implies that the mortality increases
the higher the vaccine uptake
so the more people had vaccines in 2021
so that was uh vaccines in 2021
and this was a increasing deaths in 2022
there is a positive correlation between
the two
the higher the vaccination
rate the higher the deaths the lower the
vaccination rate in 2021 the lower
the excess deaths
um
now of course
these are correlations so they they
rightly went on and looked at other
things that could be causing this
um potential reverse causality we looked
at could it be the excess mortality that
was causing the vaccinations well they
eliminated that because of course the
excess mortality came after the
correlations and we know from
um you know the the the need the need
for uh temporal correlations that the
cause has to come before the effect
um but anyway They carried on concerning
alternative explanations we control for
average or cause mortality in 2020 and
2021 by dividing the average between
2016 and 2019. so the mortality data
they were taking was from before the
pandemic
so that got rid of that variable
relatively low mortality at one period
is followed by relatively High mortality
and later on and vice versa so in other
words what they're saying here is well
if lots of people died in 2020 you'd
expect or 2021 you'd expectually expect
fewer people to die in 2022 and the
exact opposite was the case but they did
mathematically account for that
so we know that it's it's not that is
not the cause of the excess mortality
uh but even when they took account of
this direct quote from the paper we
still observe a significant association
between 2021 vaccination uptake and 2022
monthly increasing all cause mortality
countries with higher vaccines in 2021
had a higher or cause mortality
in 2022.
now they did acknowledge What's called
the ukological fallacy uh now the the
this would say that because something is
true a nation is not necessarily true
of uh of individuals which of course is
is true and they acknowledge that they
acknowledge that
uh we are cautious about making uh
individual level inferences from our
nation level findings so very honest of
the researchers there
now excess mortality
um caused by delayed medical treatment
or diagnosis
um which of course is the main reason
given in the UK Parliament for the
excess deaths
that is caused by delays in medical
treatment during the pandemic and indeed
the relative chaos in the NHS at the
moment
which is true but
um we cannot see that the issue
the issues have been more prevalent in
high vaccine versus low vaccine
countries in other words delay in
healthcare
is is all over the place all countries
have delays in healthcare
but the correlation is still there
when they looked at the
um when they looked at the countries
vaccine when they looked at the
vaccination rates
that one when they looked at that one
the correlation is still there is still
there
so um they don't think it's caused by
that and they actually specify this
I.E we do not expect delayed diagnosis
on medical treatment during the covid-19
pandemic to substantially over
I've included omitted variable bias so
they don't think it's that
so there we have it it's very clear that
there's a positive correlation
um
it's in that paper there the higher the
uh
the higher the vaccination rates were in
2021
the higher the excess mortality
in 2022.
so that's the end of this video I've
nothing more to say on that now on a
completely separate matter I've been um
thinking of might go to the states and
take up some uh start playing basketball
no nothing drag I'd probably just start
with Semi-Pro and then build up
but I've been looking at the terminology
and apparently
um you have something called a slam dunk
in basketball
and this is a literally a goal scored in
the basket by by putting the ball
straight down into the loop with one's
hand
so that's a slam dunk
the same points as a traditional basket
but it's a show of force dominance and
skill
so a slam dunk is something that is a
completely convincing
as I say nothing to do with this today's
talk
um but I'll need to use the correct
terminology for when I'm playing
basketball in the states
so do look out for me I'm quite
optimistic about it but for now
thank you for watching